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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站
一 | WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。
After Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently reaffirmed Taiwan is part of China during an interview, the Taiwan island's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was clearly rattled.
Experts said this only underscores the one-China principle has long been an established international consensus, and that the more the "pro-independence" DPP peddles narratives of "international support for Taiwan" and stirs up trouble, the more developments will emerge that run counter to its "Taiwan independence" agenda.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, Taiwan's regional external affairs department called Anwar's recent remarks on Taiwan "false," claiming that Answer openly seeks to justify the mainland's use of force to unify Taiwan.
In a video interview with Al Jazeera, released on August 16, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said, "I see Taiwan as part of China, period. You may disagree with there are some excesses. Yes, express your view, but it must be in the context. It is one China. It is accepted by all."
In response to the question on that "China has said that if peaceful reunification doesn't work, they reserve the right to use force. If it comes to that, would you condemn them?" Anwar responded by drawing an analogy with Malaysia. He said that if any part of Malaysia sought to break away, it would be his responsibility to preserve the country's territorial integrity.
When the host asked, "So, you would use force?" Anwar answered, "Yes," adding that otherwise the country would risk becoming fragmented.
Anwar's remarks, including those on China's use of all means to resolve the Taiwan question, highlight the firm international consensus on the one-China principle and reaffirm the basic principles enshrined in the UN Charter and international law, Zheng Jian, a professor at the Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Zheng noted that the Taiwan question is China's internal affair. A sovereign state has the right to safeguard its territorial integrity. Condoning separatist acts in Taiwan region would also set a problematic precedent for other countries dealing with their own separatist issues.
In a statement on Tuesday, the Taiwan regional authorities claimed that Anwar's support for the Chinese mainland could negatively affect the confidence of Taiwan businesses investing in Malaysia.
The Taiwan regional authorities' "threat" of possible economic and trade losses for Malaysia carries limited weight and amounts largely to bluffing. Zheng noted that Taiwan island does not control any critical lifelines of Malaysia's economy, while Malaysia has alternative channels and partners. Such threats therefore amount to little more than verbal posturing.
The Taiwan regional authorities' fierce but useless overreaction stems from the heavy reliance of "Taiwan independence" forces on external support. Once international statements contradicting their narrative gain traction within Taiwan, their domestic propaganda - such as claims of "widespread international support" for Taiwan - risks unraveling, prompting their sharp backlash.
Also, aside from the Malaysian prime minister's recent remarks, the joint exercises recently held by China and Indonesia have also dealt a blow to the DPP authorities. As key countries along the "first island chain", their moves have opened a rift in the denial-and-deterrence defense system built by the US, Japan and Taiwan island, delivering a major strategic blow to "Taiwan independence" forces, said Zheng.
"The more the DPP provokes and hypes up issues, the more international developments unfavorable to 'Taiwan independence' will emerge. If the DPP continues down the doomed and erroneous path of 'independence,' there will be more occasions in the future when it finds itself rattled," Zheng said.
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